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Will you pass your prop firm eval?
Enter your edge and your firm's rules. MAV runs thousands of simulated evaluations and shows your odds of hitting the profit target before the drawdown — the same math that powers MAV's Strategy Lab.
Prop eval pass-probability
Enter your edge and your firm's rules — MAV runs thousands of simulated evaluations to estimate how often that edge reaches the target before the drawdown.
Your edge is +$25 per trade
Simulated odds of passing
44.6%
In 4,000 simulated attempts, this edge reached the $3,000 target before the $2,000 drawdown 44.6% of the time.
30.9%
Hit the drawdown
24.5%
Ran out of days
13
Median days to pass
On average that's 2.24 attempts to pass once
≈ $370 in eval fees
Hypothetical Monte-Carlo simulation of the numbers you enter — not a prediction, guarantee, or financial advice. Assumes each trade is independent with your average win/loss; real results vary. Firm targets shown are approximate — confirm your evaluation's exact rules with your prop firm.
Run this on your real trades — free.
This uses your estimates. Log your trades in MAV and Strategy Lab runs the same simulation on your actual tape — plus a journal, an AI coach, and your live eval progress.
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Prop firm evaluations — frequently asked
How do you calculate the odds of passing a prop firm evaluation?
The calculator runs a Monte Carlo simulation — thousands of simulated evaluation attempts using the win rate and average win/loss you enter — and measures how often that edge reaches the profit target before hitting the drawdown. It’s a hypothetical estimate of the numbers you provide, not a prediction.
What is a good win rate to pass a futures prop firm challenge?
There’s no single number — passing depends on win rate together with your average win vs average loss (your risk-reward) and the firm’s target and drawdown. A 40% win rate with a 2:1 reward-to-risk can pass more reliably than a 60% win rate that risks more than it makes. Enter your real numbers above to see how yours holds up.
What’s the difference between trailing and end-of-day drawdown?
A trailing drawdown follows your account’s peak, so it tightens as you profit; an end-of-day (static) drawdown is measured from your starting balance and only updates daily. Trailing rules are harder to clear — pick the type your firm uses above to model it.
Is this prop firm calculator free?
Completely free, and no login is required. Create a free MAV account to run the same simulation on your real logged trades instead of estimates, and to track your live evaluation progress.
Which prop firms does it support?
It includes approximate presets for popular futures firms like Topstep, Apex, MyFundedFutures and TakeProfitTrader, and a Custom option for any target and drawdown. Always confirm the exact rules with your firm — plans change.
Hypothetical simulation of the numbers you enter — not a prediction, guarantee, or financial advice. Confirm your evaluation's exact rules with your prop firm. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss.