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Will you pass your prop firm eval?
Enter your edge and your firm's rules. MAV runs thousands of simulated evaluations and shows your odds of hitting the profit target before the drawdown — the same kind of Monte Carlo the Strategy Lab runs inside MAV, here on numbers you type in.
Prop eval pass-probability
Enter your edge and your firm's rules — MAV runs thousands of simulated evaluations to estimate how often that edge reaches the target before the drawdown.
Trailing follows your peak · Static sits a fixed amount below your start. If your firm trails on the daily close, plan with Trailing — it won't flatter your odds.
Your edge is +$25 per trade
Simulated odds of passing
44.6%
In 4,000 simulated attempts, this edge reached the $3,000 target before the $2,000 drawdown 44.6% of the time.
30.9%
Hit the drawdown
24.5%
Ran out of days
13
Median days to pass
On average that's 2.24 attempts to pass once
≈ $370 in eval fees
These odds come from the numbers you typed. Your real trades tell the true story.
MAV imports your actual trade history and simulates it against your firm's exact rules — odds, failure risks, and the change that improves them.
Run it on my real trades →Hypothetical Monte-Carlo simulation of the numbers you enter — not a prediction, guarantee, or financial advice. Assumes each trade is independent with your average win/loss; real results vary. Firm targets shown are approximate — confirm your evaluation's exact rules with your prop firm.
What this simulation can’t see
A pass probability is only as honest as its assumptions, so here are ours. Four of them matter, and every one of them is a reason the number above is directional rather than a forecast.
- Every trade is your average trade — The simulation draws wins at your average win and losses at your average loss. Real tape has outliers, and one oversized loss breaches a drawdown that averages would have cleared.
- Trades are independent — It assumes today’s result has no effect on the next one. Revenge trading after a loss and size creep after a win are exactly how evaluations end, and no average can see them.
- No consistency rule — Only the target, drawdown and optional daily loss are modelled — a best-day cap is separate, and can hold up a pass or payout on its own.
- Your numbers are estimates — Most traders remember a better win rate than their tape shows. If the inputs are optimistic, so is the output.
Swap the estimates for your tape.
Start free and journal your trades — up to 20 of them — so the numbers stop being a memory. Pro ($18.99/mo) adds The Stack for every eval account, the AI Coach and the discipline loop; Premium ($29.99/mo) adds the Strategy Lab, which runs this style of simulation over the trades you actually took.
Get started →Free plan to journal · Strategy Lab is on Premium · compare plans · cancel whenever
More free tools — no login
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Pick your market and your max risk — get the exact contracts to take for any stop distance.
Consistency Rule Calculator
Split a profit target into days and check the biggest day against your firm’s best-day cap.
All three live together on the free tools page.
Prop firm evaluations — frequently asked
How do you calculate the odds of passing a prop firm evaluation?
The calculator runs a Monte Carlo simulation — thousands of simulated evaluation attempts using the win rate and average win/loss you enter — and measures how often that edge reaches the profit target before hitting the drawdown. It’s a hypothetical estimate of the numbers you provide, not a prediction.
What is a good win rate to pass a futures prop firm challenge?
There’s no single number — passing depends on win rate together with your average win vs average loss (your risk-reward) and the firm’s target and drawdown. A 40% win rate with a 2:1 reward-to-risk can pass more reliably than a 60% win rate that risks more than it makes. Enter your real numbers above to see how yours holds up.
What’s the difference between trailing, end-of-day trailing, and static drawdown?
A trailing drawdown follows your account’s peak, so it tightens as you profit — the strictest common shape. An end-of-day trailing drawdown also follows your peak, but only updates on the daily close, so intraday give-back doesn’t ratchet it. A static drawdown never moves: it sits a fixed amount below your starting balance. This calculator models the two ends of that range — Trailing (peak-following) and Static (fixed from your start). If your firm uses end-of-day trailing, Trailing is the conservative setting to plan with, because it will not flatter your odds.
Is this prop firm calculator free?
Completely free, and no login is required. Running the same style of simulation on your real logged trades happens in MAV’s Strategy Lab, which is part of the Premium plan ($29.99/month) — the free tier does not include it. A free MAV account does let you start journaling the trades that simulation would read, up to 20 of them.
Which prop firms does it support?
The presets cover commonly-traded futures evaluations at Topstep, Apex, MyFundedFutures and Take Profit Trader across several account sizes, plus a Custom option where you type any target, drawdown and daily-loss limit — so it works for a firm that isn’t listed. The preset numbers are approximations for planning, not contractual values; confirm your evaluation’s exact rules with your firm, since plans change and differ by program.
Does this account for a consistency rule?
No — this simulation only models the profit target, the drawdown, and an optional daily-loss limit. A consistency rule (a cap on how much of your total profit one day may be) is separate, and it can hold up a pass or a payout even when the target is reached. MAV has a second free calculator for exactly that, the consistency rule calculator, linked below.
Hypothetical simulation of the numbers you enter — not a prediction, guarantee, or financial advice. Confirm your evaluation's exact rules with your prop firm. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss.